Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 10?
Closes April 10, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 3% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.2% ↑, ETH -0.1% ↓, S&P +0.8% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 10?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1846027
This event has 2 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,0: 5%, price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on A: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~95%.
price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on Apri
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Current
4% YES (-1.3pp recent)
Apr 10, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+8.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this