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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)
Share on X

Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)

Closed April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

59%YES
42%NO

Volume 24h

$76K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

61% / 67%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

59%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $76K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1848814

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Pelicans (-3.5): 68%, Spread: Pelicans (-6.5): 59%, Spread: Pelicans (-5.5): 56%.

1H Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
68%

Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)

59%
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)
56%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

48% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Apr 4, 2026

Current

52% YES (+3.0pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 59%99%
Buy YES@ 59¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.2%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 42¢

-1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this