ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Heat (-17.5)
Share on X

Spread: Heat (-17.5)

Closed April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

47%YES
54%NO

Volume 24h

$243K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

51% / 52%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

47%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Heat (-17.5)" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $243K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Spread: Heat (-17.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1848815

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Heat (-16.5): 50%, Spread: Heat (-17.5): 47%, Spread: Heat (-18.5): 46%.

Spread: Heat (-16.5)
50%

Spread: Heat (-17.5)

47%
Spread: Heat (-18.5)
46%
1H Spread: Heat (-10.5)
28%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Current

53% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 47%99%
Buy YES@ 47¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 53¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this