ForecastMind
Markets/Thunder vs. Nuggets
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Thunder vs. Nuggets

Closes April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

31%YES
70%NO

Volume 24h

$227K

Liquidity

$73K

Bid / Ask

17% / 18%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Thunder vs. Nuggets" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $227K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Thunder vs. Nuggets." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1861192

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5: 52%, Thunder vs. Nuggets: 31%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~18%.

Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5
52%

Thunder vs. Nuggets

31%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

17% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 31%99%
Buy YES@ 31¢
Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 70¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this