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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 11?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 11?

Closes April 11, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
95%FIS
+1ppvs market 95%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.7pp above current market price; market at 94% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.4% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.4% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓
+0.7pp
Live compute10:22 AM

Polymarket Price

95%YES
6%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$29K

Bid / Ask

93% / 95%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

95%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 11?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1862559

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 95%99%
Buy YES@ 95¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%
½ Kelly4.5%
Buy NO@ 6¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this