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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11?

Closes April 11, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
12%FIS
+1ppvs market 11%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 11% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.5% ↑, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓
+0.9pp
Live compute10:27 AM

Polymarket Price

11%YES
89%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

11% / 11%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1862565

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 11%99%
Buy YES@ 11¢

-2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.7%
½ Kelly1.3%
Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this