ForecastMind
Markets/Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Share on X

Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

45%YES
55%NO
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$18K
Bid / Ask44% / 45%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesMay 7, 2026

FM Estimate

43%

Market Price

45%
↑ Overpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals-3.1pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets16 markets

This event has 16 active outcome markets. the Labour Party: 88%, the Liberal Democrats: 80%, the Labour Party: 72%.

Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in
88%
Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat electio
80%
Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in
72%
Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat electio
61%
Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 20
60%
Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat electio
58%
Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in
55%

Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom

45%
Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in
40%
Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in t
28%
Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in
23%
Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the
17%
Green Party win the most council seat elections in the
14%
Conservative Party win the most council seat elections
11%
Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local
8%
Liberal Democrats win the most council seat elections i
3%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet
Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket—anchor
Kalshi11%—

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1864306