ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Spurs (-8.5)
Share on X

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)

Closed April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

51%YES
50%NO

Volume 24h

$1.5M

Liquidity

$57K

Bid / Ask

50% / 51%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

51%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Spurs (-8.5)" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.5M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Spurs (-8.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1873572

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5): 100%, Spread: Spurs (-7.5): 55%, Spread: Spurs (-8.5): 51%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 6, 2026

Current

46% YES (-4.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 51%99%
Buy YES@ 51¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 50¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this