ForecastMind
Markets/Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Closes April 18, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES
88%NO

Volume 24h

$821K

Liquidity

$28K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $821K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 18, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1877573

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-69.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

70% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 11, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

23%

Apr 11, 2026

Biggest move: -47.0pp

70% → 23%

Apr 11, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 13%99%
Buy YES@ 13¢
Edge

+4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 88¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+4.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this