Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.2% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$25K
Liquidity
$18K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 12?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879338
This event has 9 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 59%, price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 25%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~13%.
price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on Apri
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.9pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+20.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this