ForecastMind
Markets/Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

Closes April 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
86%NO

Volume 24h

$895K

Liquidity

$55K

Bid / Ask

36% / 37%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $895K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1890669

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5: 53%, there be a run scored in the first inning?: H: 47%, Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5): 45%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

40% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Current

37% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%
½ Kelly1.7%
Buy NO+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this