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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Closes April 17, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES
80%NO

Volume 24h

$57K

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

14% / 14%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $57K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 17, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1901444

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+17.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +6.2pp

7% → 13%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

25% YES (+1.6pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 20%99%
Buy YES@ 20¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 80¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this