Markets/US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?

Data as of Apr 9, 2026, 05:31 AM UTC

Closes June 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

93%FIS

−1ppvs market 94%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.2pp below current market price; market at 94% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil +0.4% ↑, VIX -18.3% ↓, Gold +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +0.4% ↑, VIX -18.3% ↓, Gold +0.2% ↑

-1.5pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute05:31 AM

Polymarket Price

94%YES

6%NO

Volume 24h

$527

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

93% / 95%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

94%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $527 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1911753

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 95%, June 15, 2026: 94%, May 31, 2026: 93%.