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Markets/Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz
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Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz

Closes April 16, 2026

Polymarket Price

54%YES
47%NO

Volume 24h

$988K

Liquidity

$128K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $988K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1922217

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Valentin Vacherot vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total S: 100%, Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot : 54%.

Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert

54%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+13.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

87% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Trough probability

36% YES — lowest in period

Apr 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

36%

Apr 9, 2026

Biggest move: -46.5pp

82% → 36%

Apr 9, 2026

Current

100% YES (+29.0pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 54%99%
Buy YES@ 54¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 47¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this