Markets/Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?

Market Price

20%YES

80%NO

FM Estimate

19%

Vol 24h$356

Liquidity$32K

Bid / Ask19% / 20%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals+0.2pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~74% chance none resolve YES.

by December 31

Israel annex any territory by December 31

20%

by June 30

Israel annex any territory by June 30

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $356 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1939065