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Markets/Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot
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Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot

Closes April 18, 2026

Polymarket Price

94%YES
6%NO

Volume 24h

$1.1M

Liquidity

$276K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.1M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 18, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1940793

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs : 94%, Carlos Alcaraz vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total S: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~6%.

Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin V

94%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+10.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

90% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

100% YES (+1.4pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 94%99%
Buy YES@ 94¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 6¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this