Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$136K

Liquidity$59K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 300% — 200pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)

100%

SSC Napoli

SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24

100%

Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)

100%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $136K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1944089