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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Hornets (-10.5)
Share on X

Spread: Hornets (-10.5)

Closed April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

63%YES
37%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$114K

Bid / Ask

63% / 64%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

63%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-10.5)" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Hornets (-10.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1950382

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+27.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

73% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Trough probability

59% YES — lowest in period

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: +25.5pp

75% → 100%

Apr 13, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Apr 13, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 63%99%
Buy YES@ 63¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 37¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this