Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
20% / 23%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
22%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-2.5)" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Hawks (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1950898
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Hawks (-2.5): 22%, Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 18%, Spread: Hawks (-5.5): 17%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~31%.
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✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
23% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: -17.4pp
17% → 0%
Apr 13, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this