Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$190K

Liquidity$364K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedApr 25, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets24 markets

24 deadline markets. Combined YES = 876% — 776pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Deportivo Alavés

Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25

100%

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25

100%

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25

100%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $190K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1954620