ForecastMind
Markets/US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

67%YES
33%NO
Vol 24h$65K
Liquidity$65K
Bid / Ask38% / 39%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesMay 31, 2026

FM Estimate

38%

Market Price

39%
Aligned
Historical patterns-1.0pp
Macro fundamentals+0.9pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 67%, May 31, 2026: 26%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~7%.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

67%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+27.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?" at 67% YES / 33% NO. In the last 24 hours, $65K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 67%, NO 33%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1962237