Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
Closed April 14, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
5% / 9%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1972310
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: 78%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O: 56%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O: 35%.
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
42% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Apr 14, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
14%
Apr 15, 2026
Biggest move: -38.5pp
52% → 14%
Apr 15, 2026
Peak probability
52% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
14% YES (-38.5pp recent)
Apr 15, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this