Markets/Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?

Market Price

95%YES

5%NO

Vol 24h$462

Liquidity$2K

ClosesMay 14, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $462 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The market closes on May 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1999844