Cavaliers vs. Raptors

Market Price

57%YES

43%NO

Vol 24h$615K

Liquidity$1.6M

Bid / Ask57% / 58%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 57%, Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5: 55%, Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 106.5: 54%.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors

57%

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5

55%

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 106.5

54%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Cavaliers vs. Raptors" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $615K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 57%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Cavaliers vs. Raptors." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2006281