ForecastMind
Markets/US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Share on X

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

40%YES
60%NO
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$33K
Bid / Ask40% / 43%
Spread3.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026

FM Estimate

37%

Market Price

40%
↑ Overpriced 2.2pp
Macro fundamentals-4.1pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31: 40%, May 31: 24%, April 30: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~33%.

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

-2.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-17). "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2006983