Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 24?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

64%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.7pp

Vol 24h$88K

Liquidity$109K

Bid / Ask65% / 67%

Spread2.00pp

ClosedApr 24, 2026

Macro fundamentals-2.7pp

low confidence · 1 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets11 markets

11 deadline markets. Combined YES = 509% — 409pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 24

100%

price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 24

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 24

100%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+23.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 24?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $88K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 72%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2007046