Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on April 24?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$50K

Liquidity$29K

ClosedApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,0

price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on A

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price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on A

price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on April 24

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-3.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on April 24?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on April 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2007058