Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
Wikipedia Attention
This event has 2 active outcome markets. US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: 19%, April 30: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~80%.
US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
Price History · 30 days
Export CSVPrice History
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $331K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2009849