Will White House post 200+ posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$12K

ClosedApr 28, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts fro

Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April

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White House post 200+ posts from April 21 to

White House post 200+ posts from April 21 to April 2

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

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PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will White House post 200+ posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will White House post 200+ posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2010955