Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5

Market Price

55%YES

45%NO

Vol 24h$65K

Liquidity$20K

Bid / Ask69% / 72%

Spread3.00pp

ClosedMay 1, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Peak probability

70%

Highest YES during game

Price swing

15pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$65K

24h total

Liquidity

$20K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-15.0pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Combined YES = 189% — 89pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5

85%

Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5

55%

Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5

28%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $65K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2011794