Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?

Market Price

94%YES

6%NO

FM Estimate

90%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.2pp

Vol 24h$45K

Liquidity$36K

Bid / Ask90% / 91%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedApr 25, 2026

Macro fundamentals-2.2pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets-0.98 correlation38 markets

38 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1839% — 1739pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 24

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25

94%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+50.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $45K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2015107