Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?

Market Price

53%YES

47%NO

Vol 24h$2.2M

Liquidity$79K

Bid / Ask52% / 53%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-24.5pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market is critical as FC Bayern München's implied probability of winning on 2026-05-02 has significantly decreased by 32 percentage points to 52% within the past week. This sharp decline, coupled with related markets suggesting near certainty of victory for other teams in different matches (100% for FC Barcelona and 1. FC Köln on 2026-04-04 and 2026-04-05 respectively, and 0% for Eintracht Frankfurt on 2026-04-05), indicates a substantial shift in perceived outcomes for FC Bayern München's future performance.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets-0.89 correlation16 markets

16 deadline markets. Combined YES = 626% — 526pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Villarreal CF

Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02

100%

FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-02

79%

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02

53%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2.2M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2018953