FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$99K

Liquidity$0

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Price swing

19pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$99K

24h total

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+19.5pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market's 100% price, a 19 percentage point surge in zero days, signifies a strong consensus that over 4.5 total goals will be scored. This prediction is reinforced by sibling markets also trading at 100%, suggesting a consistent market outlook on high goal outcomes for FC Bayern München in related matches.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

6 deadline markets. Combined YES = 600% — 500pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846:

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5

100%

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 e

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a

100%

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846:

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5

100%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $99K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2020133