Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$0

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This prediction market is significant as the current 0% YES price for Levante UD (-1.5) contrasts sharply with the 100% YES prices of related markets Spread: Utah (-1.5) and Spread: Capitals (-1.5), indicating a divergence in market expectations regarding the performance of these entities. This discrepancy demands analysis in light of recent news concerning a crime epidemic, suggesting the market is reassessing potential impacts on team outcomes.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)

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Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2020932