Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$371K

Liquidity$580K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 4, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM EstimateFM -13pp

+53.0pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The Sevilla FC win market is of immediate importance due to a significant discrepancy between the current price and its FM Estimate. The market appears overpriced by 9 percentage points, with a current price of 74% against an FM Estimate of 65%.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets12 markets

12 deadline markets. Combined YES = 629% — 529pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Sevilla FC

Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04

100%

SS Lazio

SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04

100%

AS Roma

AS Roma win on 2026-05-04

100%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $371K has been traded. The market closes on May 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2041096