Markets/Thunder vs. Suns

Thunder vs. Suns

Market Price

82%YES

18%NO

Vol 24h$291K

Liquidity$2.5M

Bid / Ask81% / 82%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 28, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets8 markets

8 deadline markets. Combined YES = 477% — 377pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Thunder vs. Suns

82%

Thunder vs. Suns: 1H Moneyline

74%

Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 103.5

58%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Thunder vs. Suns" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $291K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Thunder vs. Suns." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2043792