Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Market Price

47%YES

53%NO

Vol 24h$590K

Liquidity$82K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedApr 22, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 203% — 103pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ - Game

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winne

100%

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) -

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wal

56%

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) -

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wa

47%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+52.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $590K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The market closes on April 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2045483