Markets/Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 12.5

Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 12.5

Market Price

55%YES

45%NO

Vol 24h$161

Liquidity$2K

Bid / Ask52% / 58%

Spread6.00pp

ClosesApr 25, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 146% — 46pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 12.5

55%

Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 13.5

47%

Scoot Henderson: Rebounds O/U 2.5

45%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 12.5" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $161 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00pp. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 12.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2049027