Markets/LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Market Price

12%YES

88%NO

Vol 24h$280K

Liquidity$31K

Bid / Ask10% / 12%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesApr 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Market implies ~77% chance none resolve YES.

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group

12%

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) -

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Gr

11%

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winne

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-14.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $280K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2053174