Markets/Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Market Price

46%YES

54%NO

Vol 24h$397K

Liquidity$47K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesApr 23, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 : 100%, Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 : 100%, Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 : 100%.

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

100%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

100%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallach

46%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+55.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $397K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2054026