Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30?

Market Price

72%YES

28%NO

FM Estimate

57%

Vol 24h$42K

Liquidity$24K

Bid / Ask56% / 58%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesApr 30, 2026

Macro fundamentals+1.1pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Combined YES = 112% — 12pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,0

price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on A

72%

price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,0

price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on A

39%

price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0

price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on A

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-2.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30?" at 72% YES / 28% NO. In the last 24 hours, $42K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 58%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 72%, NO 28%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2060904