Markets/Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

Market Price

89%YES

11%NO

Vol 24h$766K

Liquidity$3K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 186% — 86pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

89%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

50%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner

47%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+41.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $766K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2062135