Markets/Total Kills Over/Under 20.5 in Game 1?

Total Kills Over/Under 20.5 in Game 1?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$60

Liquidity$218K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesApr 24, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets24 markets

24 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1494% — 1394pp excess suggests collective overpricing.