Cavaliers vs. Raptors

Market Price

64%YES

36%NO

Vol 24h$788K

Liquidity$1.2M

Bid / Ask63% / 64%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedMay 1, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Volume traded

$788K

24h total

Liquidity

$1.2M

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

6 deadline markets. Combined YES = 324% — 224pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors

64%

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H Moneyline

58%

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 106.5

56%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Cavaliers vs. Raptors" at 64% YES / 36% NO. In the last 24 hours, $788K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 64%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Cavaliers vs. Raptors." Prediction market snapshot: YES 64%, NO 36%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2073798