Pistons vs. Magic

Market Price

62%YES

38%NO

Vol 24h$349K

Liquidity$972K

Bid / Ask61% / 62%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedMay 1, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Volume traded

$349K

24h total

Liquidity

$972K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Combined YES = 253% — 153pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Pistons vs. Magic

62%

Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

50%

Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 209.5

50%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pistons vs. Magic" at 62% YES / 38% NO. In the last 24 hours, $349K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 62%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Pistons vs. Magic." Prediction market snapshot: YES 62%, NO 38%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2073867