Markets/Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers

Market Price

70%YES

30%NO

Vol 24h$526K

Liquidity$49K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesMay 8, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets11 markets

11 deadline markets. Combined YES = 270% — 170pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5

100%

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5

100%

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers

70%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-16.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers" at 70% YES / 30% NO. In the last 24 hours, $526K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers." Prediction market snapshot: YES 70%, NO 30%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2077453