Markets/New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$331K

Liquidity$0

ClosesMay 9, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels prediction market is priced at 100%, an aggressive 52 percentage point surge this week, indicating near-certainty of this event occurring as scheduled. This strong conviction suggests traders anticipate no significant disruptions from broader market movements, such as the VIX's modest 0.59% rise or the S&P 500 futures' slight 0.04% dip. The market is pricing in a high probability that the game will proceed without incident.

Momentum"New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels" moved up 52pp this week

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+52.5pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

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kalshi_sports

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $331K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2077474