Markets/Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Market Price

54%YES

46%NO

Vol 24h$191K

Liquidity$621K

Bid / Ask51% / 52%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 28, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 150% — 50pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

54%

1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

49%

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

48%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+1.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-10.5)" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $191K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Spread: Thunder (-10.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2080440