Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Market Price

58%YES

42%NO

Vol 24h$28K

Liquidity$23K

ClosedMay 1, 2026

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

6 deadline markets. Combined YES = 344% — 244pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

there be a run scored in the first inning?: A

there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona

100%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5

73%

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

58%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)" at 58% YES / 42% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 67%. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 58%, NO 42%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2126792