Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?

Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?

Market Price

33%YES

67%NO

FM Estimate

58%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

6.1pp

Vol 24h$59K

Liquidity$11K

Bid / Ask18% / 22%

Spread4.00pp

ClosesMay 2, 2026

Macro fundamentals+6.1pp

low confidence · 1 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets15 markets

15 deadline markets. Combined YES = 104% — 4pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May

41%

Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?

Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1

33%

Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?

Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May

16%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+17.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00pp. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2129658